Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
14 0x148c…aa22 sports 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate52%34W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$10
sports 18% −$6
other 14% −$2
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% −$2
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 65 -1.5% -10.9% 52% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses34 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage590d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April? May 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $260 in March? Apr 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 end of January? Feb 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Netflix reach $298 in January? Feb 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $200 in November? Dec 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $570 end of November? Dec 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 25 $4,040 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 25 $1,938 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $2,101 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 25 $2,137 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 25 $2,006 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Aug 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $10 before June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 20 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $97000 and $99000 on Feb 28? Mar 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 220-239 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $868 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $892 −$1 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $901 −$1 -0%
Will ETHBTC be less than .028 on February 7? Feb 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana dip to $120 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Feb 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Biden resign before inauguration? Jan 20 $1 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Jan 20 $2 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.40 on January 17? Jan 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will LA wildfires burn 60-70k acres by Sunday? Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Solana above $215 on January 10? Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 11 $2 $0 +0%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 07 $1 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Clippers Dec 08 $2 $0 -0%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Dec 08 $14 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Devils Dec 08 $19 $0 -0%
Flames vs. Predators Dec 08 $23 −$1 -6%
Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-08? Dec 07 $8 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Knicks Dec 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? Dec 07 $13 $0 -0%
Raiders vs. Buccaneers Dec 07 $3 $0 -4%
Suns vs. Heat Dec 07 $13 $0 -0%
Browns vs. Steelers Dec 06 $3 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? BUY No 99¢ $40 30d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $43 58d
Will NVIDIA reach $260 in March? BUY No 100¢ $41 93d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $4 145d
Will Netflix reach $298 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 147d
Will Google dip to $200 in November? BUY No 100¢ $2 207d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $570 end of November? BUY No 100¢ $44 207d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,932 240d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,934 240d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,936 240d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,938 240d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2,099 240d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2,101 240d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,135 240d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,137 240d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,004 240d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,006 240d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,105 240d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,107 240d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $20 243d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $3 298d
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? BUY No 100¢ $1 331d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 362d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $10 before June? BUY No 100¢ $1 392d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 423d
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 431d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 456d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 456d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.87 · official $37.87 (match) · 162 history records