Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:21:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1490…36a5 crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 672d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-9%) realized −$45 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$101
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$85
other 11% −$14
politics 5% +$30
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -31.4% -38.0% 41% 41% -35.0%
≤30d 49 -31.4% -38.0% 41% 41% -35.0%
≤90d 49 -31.4% -38.0% 41% 41% -35.0%
all 50 -28.4% -35.3% 42% 42% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 42% -26.3%
10% -41.5% 40% -33.4%
15% -47.1% 30% -39.8%
20% -52.3% 20% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

672d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage672d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $26 $32 +$6 (+22%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-34%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 16 $15 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$7 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$12 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -47%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $25 +$30 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 9m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 59m
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.65 · official $59.65 (match) · 165 history records