Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1491…5115 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$3
other 21% +$1
politics 16% −$14
crypto 6% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 0% −$3
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.2% -8.4% 67% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 5 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 10 +7.6% -2.6% 50% 10% -8.9%
all 35 -5.9% -14.9% 49% 3% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 3% -11.0%
10% -23.0% 3% -19.5%
15% -30.5% 3% -27.3%
20% -37.3% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage479d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $41 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $46 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $131 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $2 +$2 +73%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $29 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -92%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the PPC win 2 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Silviu Predoiu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Apr 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 14 $19 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 03 $19 $0 +2%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 29 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 27 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 19 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $52 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $42 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $41 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $47 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $17 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $21 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $25 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $22 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $24 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $12 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $18 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $34 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $8 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $38 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $39 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $7 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $24 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $20 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $31 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 29d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 30d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 33d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.32 · official $54.32 (match) · 106 history records