Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x1492…6067
crypto · 288 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$363 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$36 · open +$186
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Net worth$2,607
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$186
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses163 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)254 / 288
History coverage110d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 18 History 254 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$3
14 days+$38
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $694 $755 +$62 (+9%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 73¢ 90¢ $558 $683 +$125 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $297 $300 +$2 (+1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 67¢ 80¢ $156 $186 +$30 (+19%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 69¢ 80¢ $150 $174 +$23 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $170 $169 −$1 (-1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 69¢ 79¢ $56 $64 +$8 (+14%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 66¢ $44 $54 +$10 (+24%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $100 $49 −$51 (-51%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 34¢ 39¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 74¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 41¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? No 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 40¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 19¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026? No 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $34 −$4 -12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $36 −$3 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Jun 13 $44 +$14 +32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -42%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 07 $1 $0 -24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $2 +$1 +57%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $9 −$4 -43%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $30 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $133 +$22 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $39 +$16 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $11 −$9 -84%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 28 $64 +$37 +58%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 28 $21 −$14 -67%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $35 −$27 -78%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 26 $2 +$3 +156%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $48 −$22 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 25 $146 −$19 -13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 25 $21 −$12 -56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $56 +$49 +88%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 24 $87 +$13 +15%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? May 23 $5 −$1 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $10 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? May 23 $1 −$1 -75%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $74 $0 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 17 $1 $0 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 10 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 06 $2 $0 +9%
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? May 05 $1 $0 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 03 $27 −$1 -3%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 02 $10 −$7 -69%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 02 $1 −$1 -72%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $1 +$1 +68%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 18 $27 +$6 +24%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 18 $15 +$5 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 60% +$302
crypto 26% −$80
other 11% −$25
sports 2% +$22
finance 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $149 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $27 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes $27 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $32 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $30 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $85 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $115 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 15h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $8 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 16¢ $7 16h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 19¢ $5 16h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 63¢ $12 16h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 20¢ $5 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $5 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 23h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $33 23h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end i BUY $2 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 17¢ $7 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 10¢ $4 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a BUY $2 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? A BUY $3 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? A BUY 14¢ $5 30h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end i BUY $2 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 16¢ $10 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY $2 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -5.8% -14.8% 43% 36% -7.7%
≤30d 38 -13.5% -21.7% 39% 34% -4.9%
≤90d 70 -19.9% -27.5% 40% 34% -2.4%
all 254 -11.1% -19.6% 64% 28% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 28% -7.3%
10% -27.3% 20% -16.1%
15% -34.3% 13% -24.2%
20% -40.8% 10% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,607.11 · official $2,646.01 · 932 history records