Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1492…5430 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%5W / 25L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$63
sports 10% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-65.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -62.0% -65.6% 17% 17% +8.4%
≤30d 30 -62.0% -65.6% 17% 17% +8.4%
≤90d 30 -62.0% -65.6% 17% 17% +8.4%
all 30 -62.0% -65.6% 17% 17% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -65.6% 17% +8.4%
10% ← realistic here -68.9% 10% -1.9%
15% -71.9% 10% -11.4%
20% -74.7% 7% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$2 · ×10.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses5 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 40
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 54¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 $0 -11%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $70 +$13 +18%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia Jun 18 $1 −$1 -91%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -40%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $1 $0 +17%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$54 +106%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$24 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 52¢ $25 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $47 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 52¢ $39 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on BUY $21 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY $10 6h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 BUY 61¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 6h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 23¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY $5 11h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $1 11h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $1 11h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 41¢ $10 11h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $1 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY $1 12h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia SELL $0 23h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 10¢ $1 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY $1 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 24¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.14 · official $31.14 · 59 history records