Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x1495…5d12
sports · 28 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$84 -39%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$84 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$5
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage246d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 1 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 65¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Yes 57¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Knicks 56¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Spurs 65¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
First Blood in Game 2? Team Falcons $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 18.5 No 50¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $5 $0 -2%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 May 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Dean Wade: Points O/U 0.5 May 20 $5 +$1 +24%
First Blood in Game 2? May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5 May 08 $5 +$4 +73%
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 27.5 May 08 $5 +$4 +83%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 18.5 May 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 07 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $10 +$2 +18%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Apr 29 $7 +$7 +97%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Timberwolves Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Kings Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5 Apr 28 $3 +$5 +160%
Kings vs. Thunder Oct 29 $2 +$1 +25%
Hornets vs. Heat Oct 29 $2 +$1 +52%
76ers vs. Wizards Oct 29 $3 +$2 +59%
Celtics vs. Pistons Oct 27 $2 +$1 +75%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 26 $59 −$58 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$25
other 28% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $5 23h
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $5 23d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 50¢ $5 23d
First Blood in Game 2? SELL Team Falcons $0 24d
First Blood in Game 2? BUY Team Falcons $1 24d
Dean Wade: Points O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 80¢ $5 24d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 BUY No 73¢ $5 24d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 65¢ $5 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 32d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 57¢ $5 32d
LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5 BUY Yes 57¢ $5 36d
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 54¢ $5 36d
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 18.5 BUY No 50¢ $5 36d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 37d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Knicks 56¢ $20 37d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $7 45d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 83¢ $10 45d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $10 45d
Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 38¢ $3 45d
Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 2.5 BUY Yes 95¢ $5 45d
Lakers vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 72¢ $6 226d
Cavaliers vs. Celtics BUY Cavaliers 61¢ $5 226d
Kings vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 80¢ $2 226d
Hornets vs. Heat BUY Heat 66¢ $2 226d
76ers vs. Wizards BUY 76ers 63¢ $3 226d
Lakers vs. Kings BUY Kings 55¢ $10 228d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 57¢ $2 228d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? SELL Yes $1 228d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 246d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +52.2% +37.7% 100% 100% +37.7%
≤30d 6 +9.1% -1.3% 67% 67% +14.1%
≤90d 22 -11.6% -20.0% 50% 50% -28.8%
all 27 -5.3% -14.3% 56% 56% -45.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 56% -45.7%
10% -22.5% 52% -50.9%
15% -30.0% 44% -55.7%
20% -36.9% 37% -60.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.16 · official $5.16 (match) · 53 history records