Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
14 0x1495…d3f9 sports 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,113 (+6%) realized +$1,161 · open −$48
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%100W / 125L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$307est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$35
14 days+$74
30 days+$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,123
crypto 2% −$83
other 2% −$75
world 1% −$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 50% +8.8%
≤30d 39 +43.5% +29.8% 46% 46% -4.6%
≤90d 177 +5.9% -4.2% 46% 44% -5.3%
all 225 +1.4% -8.2% 44% 42% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 42% -5.2%
10% -17.0% 40% -14.3%
15% -25.0% 38% -22.5%
20% -32.4% 35% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$61 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$1,161
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses100 / 125
Est. fees paid−$307
Open positions1
Markets (closed)225 / 230
History coverage111d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 20¢ $80 $32 −$48 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $64 +$18 +29%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $36 +$27 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -94%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $41 −$17 -41%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $18 +$24 +135%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $97 −$60 -62%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 +$6 +13%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +157%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $74 −$68 -92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $589 +$573 +97%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 14 $225 −$221 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $100 −$99 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$5 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $82 +$109 +132%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $233 +$184 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $142 +$75 +53%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $368 +$85 +23%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $678 −$245 -36%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $870 −$860 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $235 +$377 +160%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $152 +$142 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 05 $7 −$3 -48%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $253 −$250 -99%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 04 $122 +$116 +95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $234 +$285 +122%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $132 −$130 -99%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 03 $165 +$93 +57%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $415 +$420 +101%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $246 +$195 +79%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $284 −$41 -14%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 28 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 28 $128 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $92 −$90 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 27 $36 −$35 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 May 27 $142 −$140 -98%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5 May 26 $100 +$95 +95%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 24 $182 −$180 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $61 +$39 +64%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 May 24 $101 +$91 +90%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline May 24 $61 +$28 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 23 $26 +$12 +49%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $205 −$205 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 May 23 $102 +$107 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $82 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $64 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $36 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up $7 3d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Los Angeles Sparks 16¢ $24 4d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 26¢ $41 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 44¢ $41 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will G BUY 21¢ $26 5d
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Indiana Fever $10 5d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Moro BUY 17¢ $16 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 46¢ $38 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 53¢ $94 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $31 9d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $34 9d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 10d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $50 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 10d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 10d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $46 10d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 38¢ $102 10d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 10d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Las Vegas Aces $6 10d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 12¢ $74 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $12 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 13¢ $41 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 13¢ $41 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $1,149 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 50¢ $188 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.01 · official $33.65 · 447 history records