Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x149a…ac9d politics 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 62L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$12
other 14% −$2
economics 12% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 65 -2.1% -11.4% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage633d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jared Goff win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the NFC West? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Biden resign in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Damson Idris announced as next James Bond? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Buccaneers win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Rabby airdrop in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the Bundesliga? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will Jusuf Nurkic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Mircea Geoană advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Anthony Richardson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bears win the NFC North? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Nov 25 $0 $0 -2%
Will Penn State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 25 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the AFC south? Nov 25 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Nov 18 $0 $0 -2%
Will Trump nominate Ted McKinney for Agriculture Secretary? Nov 18 $0 $0 -3%
Will Jamie Vardy be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Nov 18 $0 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate John Ratcliffe for Attorney General? Nov 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Chad Wolf for Homeland Security Secretary? Nov 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the Serie A? Nov 11 $0 $0 -3%
Will Zach LaVine lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the Nov 11 $0 $0 -4%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Hoffenheim win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 11 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 15h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 20d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 21d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 36d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 36d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 45d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 46d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $52 65d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $52 66d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $52 67d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $22 67d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $30 67d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 94d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 95d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 95d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 98d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 98d
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $52 100d
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $52 101d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 103d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 103d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 107d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 107d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 114d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 116d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $52 118d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $52 120d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 135d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records