Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:42:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
14 0x149b…1476 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$21 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$16
sports 27% −$12
other 26% +$3
politics 11% $0
culture 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.1% 57% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 25 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 36 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 53 -1.8% -11.2% 45% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage302d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $145 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $309 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $69 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $74 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $68 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $222 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $38 −$8 -22%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $75 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $83 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $59 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $165 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $163 −$2 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $18 −$5 -26%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $74 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $94 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $85 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $86 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $80 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $80 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $84 −$4 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $72 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $346 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $584 +$4 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $583 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $582 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $582 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $645 +$1 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $581 +$1 +0%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $171 $0 -0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 10 $36 −$14 -39%
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) Mar 09 $185 $0 +0%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 09 $169 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 18 $56 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Sep 17 $33 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 16 $67 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $69 6h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $69 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $29 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $62 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $7 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $11 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $54 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $4 23h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $76 27h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $76 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $69 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $69 38h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 46h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $31 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $29 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $69 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $75 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $74 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.77 · official $26.77 (match) · 222 history records