Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
14 0x149f…6e90 politics 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$412per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$10
other 18% −$3
finance 10% −$1
tech 7% −$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$757) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage81d
Avg bet$412
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 23 $1,121 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,147 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 23 $1,121 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $108 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $787 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $801 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $755 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 22 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $710 −$4 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $158 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $123 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 03 $72 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 03 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,120 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,079 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $192 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $810 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $12 2h
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $310 2h
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $1,121 2h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 27d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 27d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 27d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $16 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 27d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 27d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 27d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $23 29d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $18 29d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $23 29d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $11 29d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $29 29d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 30d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $742 30d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records