Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:10:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14a3…076e crypto 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$23 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day66.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$132
sports 6% +$93
other 5% −$14
finance 2% −$2
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +34.2% +21.4% 39% 28% -14.7%
≤30d 46 +34.2% +21.4% 39% 28% -14.7%
≤90d 46 +34.2% +21.4% 39% 28% -14.7%
all 46 +34.2% +21.4% 39% 28% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.4% 28% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here +9.8% 24% -22.9%
15% -0.8% 15% -30.3%
20% -10.5% 9% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)46 / 69
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day66.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 70¢ 54¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 65¢ 46¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-30%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $79 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $88 +$20 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $78 −$57 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$18 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $39 +$19 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $38 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$15 -49%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AN Jun 25 $5 +$72 +1396%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +32%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$4 -21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $1 +$23 +2214%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $37 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 19m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 35m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY 46¢ $15 36m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.34 · official $73.77 · 170 history records