Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

14 0x14a8…531a other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$12 (+11%) realized +$12 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip

Net edge+36%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+41.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+55.9%	+41.0%	100%	100%	+41.0%
≤30d	1	+55.9%	+41.0%	100%	100%	+41.0%
≤90d	1	+55.9%	+41.0%	100%	100%	+41.0%
all	1	+55.9%	+41.0%	100%	100%	+41.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+41.0%	100%	+41.0%
10%	+27.5%	100%	+27.5%
15%	+15.2%	100%	+15.2%
20%	+3.9%	100%	+3.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +56% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +56% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$83

Realized+$12

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	68¢	66¢	$35	$34	−$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19¢	19¢	$19	$20	+$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	64¢	66¢	$9	$9	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$20	+$11	+56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	68¢	$37	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$21	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$9	13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$11	13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$20	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.10 · official $83.10 (match) · 7 history records