Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
14 0x14a9…d2d1 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-24%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$46
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.0% -14.0% 67% 67% -23.6%
≤30d 3 -5.0% -14.0% 67% 67% -23.6%
≤90d 3 -5.0% -14.0% 67% 67% -23.6%
all 3 -5.0% -14.0% 67% 67% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 67% -23.6%
10% -22.2% 33% -30.9%
15% -29.8% 33% -37.6%
20% -36.6% 33% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$148 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $149 +$102 +68%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $151 −$148 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 99¢ $251 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 58¢ $48 2h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 58¢ $101 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 14¢ $51 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 64¢ $99 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 8 history records