Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
14 0x14aa…fa9b other 35 markets active 3h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$146 (+0%) realized +$148 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate91%31W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$857per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$1,238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$130
14 days+$134
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$232
sports 6% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -4.8% -13.9% 91% 3% -9.1%
≤30d 34 -4.4% -13.5% 91% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 34 -4.4% -13.5% 91% 3% -9.1%
all 34 -4.4% -13.5% 91% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 3% -9.1%
10% -21.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -29.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,170) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$41 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,238
Realized+$148
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses31 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage11d
Avg bet$857
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,240 $1,238 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $1,240 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Ceará SC 3 - 2 Botafogo FC? Jun 21 $1,230 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1,228 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $18 +$4 +21%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 3 - 0 Athletic Club? Jun 20 $1,200 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1,200 +$11 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,190 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $1,185 +$12 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $1,180 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $1,170 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $1,170 +$4 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,141 +$27 +2%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $1,130 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1,120 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $1,060 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: Olympic Dcheira 3 - 0 AS FAR? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $1,060 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,100 +$11 +1%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $1,085 +$16 +2%
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,076 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,074 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,051 +$21 +2%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $1,050 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,037 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 0 - 2 Ceará SC? Jun 16 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $998 +$9 +1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $119 −$119 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $118 +$1 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $118 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $117 +$1 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $114 +$3 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $113 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 98¢ $1,241 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $1,240 6h
Exact Score: Ceará SC 3 - 2 Botafogo FC? BUY No 99¢ $1,230 11h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 14h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 1¢ $1 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $18 16h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 3 - 0 Athletic Club? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 24h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 30h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Haiti? BUY No 99¢ $1,190 33h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $1,185 35h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? SELL No 100¢ $1,184 35h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 100¢ $1,180 36h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? SELL No 100¢ $1,178 36h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $1,170 38h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? SELL No 100¢ $1,175 38h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $1,170 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 98¢ $1,141 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? BUY No 99¢ $1,130 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 100¢ $1,129 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $1,120 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa? SELL No 100¢ $1,069 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $1,060 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa? SELL No 100¢ $1,067 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $1,060 2d
Exact Score: Olympic Dcheira 3 - 0 AS FAR? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 99¢ $1,100 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? SELL No 100¢ $1,100 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? BUY No 98¢ $1,085 3d
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $1,085 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,237.62 · official $1,237.62 (match) · 74 history records