Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14ac…d92d other 1261 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$980 (-9%) realized −$1,049 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%240W / 796L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$826now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days+$84
14 days+$226
30 days+$511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$13
finance 23% −$274
world 19% −$163
sports 16% +$466
politics 4% −$174
crypto 1% −$14
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 +33.7% +21.0% 39% 39% -0.2%
≤30d 392 +27.9% +15.7% 35% 35% +2.2%
≤90d 1036 -5.2% -14.2% 23% 23% -11.1%
all 1036 -5.2% -14.2% 23% 23% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 23% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 22% -19.6%
15% -29.9% 22% -27.3%
20% -36.8% 19% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$826
Realized−$1,049
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses240 / 796
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions24
Markets (closed)1036 / 1261
History coverage73d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 1036 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $191 $263 +$71 (+37%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 68¢ 93¢ $130 $178 +$48 (+37%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 64¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $78 $67 −$12 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $43 $32 −$11 (-25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July? Yes 44¢ 29¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-34%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-67%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Will Pam Bondi be held in contempt of Congress by June 30? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 476 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 27 $81 +$16 +20%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams Jun 27 $10 +$62 +617%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $15 +$7 +46%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams Jun 27 $5 +$17 +331%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$7 +65%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $15 −$9 -62%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$8 +81%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 +$5 +101%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 +$11 +109%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? Jun 26 $5 −$4 -84%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 26 $98 −$69 -71%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $15 +$10 +67%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND W Jun 25 $7 +$48 +663%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$29 +82%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 +$38 +1845%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$11 +109%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$3 -32%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 64¢ $20 26m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 60¢ $20 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 60¢ $20 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 60¢ $30 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 6h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 68¢ $15 6h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 25¢ $5 7h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Tot BUY 11¢ $5 7h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Tot BUY 11¢ $8 7h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 7h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 43¢ $56 8h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $10 9h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 41¢ $15 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 63¢ $15 15h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 11¢ $6 15h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $5 15h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $825.99 · official $826.10 (match) · 2334 history records