Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x14af…b036 crypto 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+4%) realized +$20 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate67%56W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$11
world 13% $0
other 5% +$4
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.2% -7.5% 43% 29% +1.4%
≤30d 15 -9.7% -18.3% 40% 27% -7.3%
≤90d 84 +6.8% -3.4% 67% 36% -6.8%
all 84 +6.8% -3.4% 67% 36% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 36% -6.8%
10% -12.6% 24% -15.7%
15% -21.0% 15% -23.8%
20% -28.8% 12% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses56 / 28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage63d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? No 75¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -19%
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31? Jun 03 $7 +$3 +38%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +24%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? May 20 $14 −$1 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 07 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 04 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 04 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 04 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 04 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 03 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 02 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 02 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 02 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 02 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 02 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $1 +$6 +621%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 30 $1 +$2 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 22 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 22 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 22 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 22 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 22 $8 +$2 +19%
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 16 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 85¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 1h
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 2d
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $3 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $1 14d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $1 14d
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 84¢ $8 25d
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $4 25d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $8 25d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $1 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? SELL No 83¢ $6 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.59 · official $30.59 (match) · 271 history records