Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14b5…edb0 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized −$16 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day111.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$32
crypto 25% −$15
finance 12% −$25
other 9% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -6.0% -15.0% 33% 11% -10.2%
≤30d 9 -6.0% -15.0% 33% 11% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -6.0% -15.0% 33% 11% -10.2%
all 9 -6.0% -15.0% 33% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 11% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 11% -18.8%
15% -30.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
61.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day111.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 63¢ 72¢ $97 $111 +$14 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 65¢ 28¢ $32 $14 −$18 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $629 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $267 −$20 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $579 +$22 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $280 −$25 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$3 -22%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $69 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $150 −$29 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $121 +$39 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$2 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.07 · official $125.08 (match) · 662 history records