Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14b6…7e48 crypto 526 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (417 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$713 (-10%) realized −$713 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate54%441W / 379L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day417.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$272
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (417 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 755 -40.2% -45.9% 52% 25% -55.7%
≤30d 820 -37.2% -43.2% 54% 27% -51.7%
≤90d 820 -37.2% -43.2% 54% 27% -51.7%
all 820 -37.2% -43.2% 54% 27% -51.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover417.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.2% 27% -51.7%
10% ← realistic here -48.6% 1% -56.3%
15% -53.6% 0% -60.5%
20% -58.1% 0% -64.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$19 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$713
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses441 / 379
Open positions0
Markets (closed)820 / 526
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day417.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 820 Trades
no open positions (340 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on May Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$37 -156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$36 -225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$25 -253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$18 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$9 -143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$38 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$17 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$21 -211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$6 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$2 -179%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $11 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $12 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records