Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14b7…bfd9 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$347 (-20%) realized −$347 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$339
politics 42% −$4
other 3% $0
tech 2% −$16
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 58% 50% -6.2%
≤30d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 58% 50% -6.2%
≤90d 15 -12.5% -20.8% 53% 40% -8.8%
all 39 -19.2% -26.9% 49% 23% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 23% -28.7%
10% -33.9% 23% -35.5%
15% -40.3% 23% -41.8%
20% -46.1% 23% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$32 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$347
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage546d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$19 -72%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$28 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$19 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +77%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$19 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$24 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 12 $53 +$2 +3%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 18 $30 +$24 +79%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 18 $17 +$78 +462%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 18 $65 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 18 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 18 $70 −$69 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? Nov 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Nov 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 20 $16 $0 +2%
Record low border encounters in June? Sep 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win The Bronx in the New York City Mayoral Democrati Jul 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for th Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? May 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the May 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $649 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $6 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $31 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $12 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $4 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $15 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $45 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $45 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $49 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.94 · official $6.94 (match) · 120 history records