Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:20:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
14 0x14b8…1726 other 6 markets active 14h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$541 (+34%) realized +$758 · open −$217
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +302% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +264% what you keep after slip
Net edge+264%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$1,062now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$371
sports 3% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+263.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +302.0% +263.7% 40% 40% +216.0%
≤30d 5 +302.0% +263.7% 40% 40% +216.0%
≤90d 5 +302.0% +263.7% 40% 40% +216.0%
all 5 +302.0% +263.7% 40% 40% +216.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +263.7% 40% +216.0%
10% +228.9% 40% +185.7%
15% +197.1% 40% +158.1%
20% +168.0% 40% +132.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +249% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +302% · $-wt +249% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$465 vs −$64 · ×7.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.82 per $1 lost it wins $4.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1,062
Realized+$758
Unrealized−$217
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage19d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1,279 $1,062 −$217 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$149 +291%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $51 +$781 +1519%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 27 $100 −$98 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $47 −$46 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 14h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 15h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? SELL Yes 100¢ $832 15h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 26h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $47 27h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 27h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 27h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $94 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $487 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,061.87 · official $1,061.87 (match) · 38 history records