Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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14 0x14b9…f378 crypto 291 markets active 9h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$72,046 (-19%) realized −$48,991 · open −$23,055
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate16%111W / 573L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,315per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Fees−$2,811est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3,722now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79,711
7 days−$37,041
14 days−$70,591
30 days−$75,416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$11,116
sports 44% −$44,604
politics 6% −$44,660
crypto 1% −$340
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-67.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 453 -87.9% -89.0% 4% 4% -20.8%
≤30d 466 -87.3% -88.5% 4% 4% -28.7%
≤90d 684 -64.5% -67.9% 16% 14% -29.1%
all 684 -64.5% -67.9% 16% 14% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.9% 14% -29.1%
10% -71.0% 13% -35.8%
15% ← realistic here -73.8% 11% -42.0%
20% -76.4% 9% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,429 vs −$413 · ×3.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$3,722
Realized−$48,991
Unrealized−$23,055
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses111 / 573
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$2,811
Open positions2
Markets (closed)684 / 291
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$1,315
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 684 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $26,270 $3,437 −$22,833 (-87%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $508 $285 −$223 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $174 −$174 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $7,587 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $475 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $315 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $31 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $31 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $5 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $5 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $112 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $112 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $2,438 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $0 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $240 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1,144 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $3,460 13h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $191 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $213 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $21 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $23 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $43 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $52 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $28 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $256 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $9 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $107 16h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3,972 17h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $247 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,722.48 · official $3,722.48 (match) · 3500 history records