Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:57:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14bb…b557 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized −$27 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$70
crypto 30% −$69
sports 11% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -29.3% -36.0% 38% 38% -9.9%
≤30d 16 -29.3% -36.0% 38% 38% -9.9%
≤90d 16 -29.3% -36.0% 38% 38% -9.9%
all 16 -29.3% -36.0% 38% 38% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 38% -9.9%
10% -42.1% 38% -18.6%
15% -47.7% 38% -26.4%
20% -52.9% 31% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Australia 50¢ 86¢ $40 $69 +$29 (+72%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 +$18 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 +$34 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $53 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$21 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$43 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 50¢ $41 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $23 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $21 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 15h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $33 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $89 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.91 · official $90.91 (match) · 34 history records