Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x14bc…aa14
other · 59 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
−$2,140 -26%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,619 · open −$521
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,279
Realized−$1,619
Unrealized−$521
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)52 / 59
History coverage251d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 7 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $500 $345 −$155 (-31%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $200 $24 −$176 (-88%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $200 $15 −$185 (-93%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-07? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win fewer than 150 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election? No 9¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Chelsea finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Brighton win on 2025-10-25? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election? No 8¢ 0¢ $560 $0 −$560 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? No 2¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 250 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election? No 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? No 31¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $505 +$288 +57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $101 +$46 +45%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 02 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 25 $100 +$134 +134%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Mar 17 $100 +$61 +61%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 17 $100 +$76 +76%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 21 $81 +$19 +24%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 21 $100 +$157 +157%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 21 $100 +$189 +189%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party loose any seats in Japanese snap ele Feb 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election? Feb 05 $560 −$560 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 250 or more seats in the 2026 Ja Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win fewer than 150 seats in the 2026 Feb 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-17? Feb 04 $100 +$358 +358%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 05 $100 −$100 -100%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Jan 05 $10 +$13 +127%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $100 +$167 +167%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 25 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? Nov 25 $200 +$94 +47%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 25 $100 +$257 +257%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? Nov 25 $100 +$306 +306%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-24? Nov 25 $100 +$375 +375%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30? Nov 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-10-22? Oct 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Brighton win on 2025-10-25? Oct 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Chelsea (-0.5) Oct 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Oct 18 $100 −$100 -100%
BitBoy convicted? Oct 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Florida Panthers win the Atlantic Division? Oct 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? Oct 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Oct 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Oct 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? Oct 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed? Oct 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Chelsea finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Oct 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Oct 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% +$172
politics 20% −$1,296
crypto 12% −$1,000
sports 9% +$292
world 2% −$200
tech 1% −$87
economics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $308 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $100 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $100 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 40d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 40d
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? BUY Yes 6¢ $105 41d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $104 41d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $400 41d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 65¢ $354 41d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 41d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 41d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 41d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 41d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 41d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 98¢ $234 48d
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? BUY No 31¢ $100 87d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 111d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 111d
Will the Liberal Democratic Party loose any seats in Japanese snap ele BUY Yes 2¢ $100 127d
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election? BUY No 8¢ $12 128d
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election? BUY No 8¢ $49 128d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 128d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 26¢ $100 128d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 128d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 128d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 128d
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election? BUY No 9¢ $100 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +57.0% +42.0% 100% 100% +42.0%
≤90d 11 +9.6% -0.8% 64% 64% +10.8%
all 52 -16.3% -24.2% 35% 35% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 35% -31.9%
10% -31.5% 35% -38.5%
15% -38.1% 33% -44.4%
20% -44.2% 27% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,279.14 · official $1,279.14 (match) · 96 history records