Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:13:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
14 0x14be…3296 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,953 (+38%) realized +$4,984 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$892now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$6,568
other 49% −$1,894
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +44.9% +31.1% 51% 41% +27.0%
≤30d 41 +44.9% +31.1% 51% 41% +27.0%
≤90d 41 +44.9% +31.1% 51% 41% +27.0%
all 41 +44.9% +31.1% 51% 41% +27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.1% 41% +27.0%
10% ← realistic here +18.5% 39% +14.9%
15% +7.1% 29% +3.8%
20% -3.4% 27% -6.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +70% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$383 vs −$167 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$892
Realized+$4,984
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 45
History coverage5d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $323 $302 −$20 (-6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $229 +$360 +157%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$37 -36%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $154 +$19 +12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $514 −$480 -93%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $730 +$551 +75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $578 +$167 +29%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $103 +$135 +132%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $103 +$64 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $93 −$47 -50%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $290 −$9 -3%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $154 +$45 +29%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $103 +$33 +32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $882 +$1,584 +180%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,483 +$831 +56%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $701 +$217 +31%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$22 +43%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$47 +91%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $154 +$15 +10%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 +$382 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $610 −$502 -82%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $16 +$23 +143%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $611 −$116 -19%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $137 −$133 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $144 −$141 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $81 −$79 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $513 −$482 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,305 −$149 -11%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $204 +$5 +2%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $161 +$3,202 +1983%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $499 −$481 -96%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $131 −$131 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$329 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $215 +$15 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $126 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $204 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $164 2h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $590 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 7¢ $66 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 13¢ $173 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $18 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $107 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $16 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $0 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $0 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $0 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 4¢ $51 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $891.79 · official $891.79 (match) · 191 history records