Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14c6…8417 world 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%38W / 67L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$28
14 days+$23
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$8
other 25% +$2
sports 17% −$2
politics 15% +$3
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.0% -6.8% 40% 20% -8.0%
≤30d 27 +1.3% -8.3% 41% 11% -9.0%
≤90d 73 -2.6% -11.9% 37% 5% -9.5%
all 105 -1.5% -10.9% 36% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 5% -9.4%
10% -19.4% 2% -18.1%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses38 / 67
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage283d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $179 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $341 +$1 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $161 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $277 −$19 -7%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $306 +$10 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $212 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $120 +$38 +31%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $119 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $151 −$8 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $271 +$2 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $125 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $124 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $14 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $124 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $241 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $143 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $136 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $214 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $124 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $209 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $275 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $134 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $59 −$11 -19%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $162 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $159 +$2 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $145 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $219 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $170 −$2 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $779 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $161 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $450 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $152 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $147 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $8 −$2 -24%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $468 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $152 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $167 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $179 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $179 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $179 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $179 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $163 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $162 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $69 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $93 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $161 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 31h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $79 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $84 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $143 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $121 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $121 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $155 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $136 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $58 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $88 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $151 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.69 · official $0.00 · 499 history records