Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
14 0x14c8…c192 sports 270 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$764 (+10%) realized +$816 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%133W / 134L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$517
14 days+$870
30 days+$631
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$551
other 8% +$17
world 1% +$19
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +36.9% +23.8% 55% 55% +7.4%
≤30d 267 +8.7% -1.6% 50% 49% -1.8%
≤90d 267 +8.7% -1.6% 50% 49% -1.8%
all 267 +8.7% -1.6% 50% 49% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 49% -1.8%
10% -11.0% 49% -11.2%
15% -19.6% 47% -19.7%
20% -27.5% 39% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$24 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$816
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses133 / 134
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions2
Markets (closed)267 / 270
History coverage37d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 29¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Power Rangers 26¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $24 −$23 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $36 +$34 +93%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 +$13 +119%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $27 +$126 +474%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$23 +250%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 +$11 +146%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$81 +158%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $4 +$6 +124%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $8 +$12 +140%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $91 +$79 +86%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $145 −$15 -10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $34 −$33 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 +$34 +109%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $35 −$30 -86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $102 +$103 +102%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $3 +$4 +124%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $6 +$14 +226%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $6 +$14 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $51 +$26 +52%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$8 +128%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 +$37 +89%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $70 −$21 -29%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $36 +$89 +249%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Northern Ireland vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $9 +$16 +165%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 +$8 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$32 +64%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 34¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 19¢ $11 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 26¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 22¢ $24 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $36 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $51 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 45¢ $11 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 22¢ $27 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 14h
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies BUY Toronto Marlies 63¢ $5 15h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 17¢ $27 16h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 23¢ $26 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $7 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 28¢ $9 19h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 55¢ $51 21h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 38¢ $51 22h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 44¢ $4 24h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 41¢ $8 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 49¢ $3 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $91 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 69¢ $91 39h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $26 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $54 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $51 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $51 46h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $51 46h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 28¢ $34 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $31 2d
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Chicago Wolves 34¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 471 history records