Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
14 0x14c8…37e0 world 35 markets active 13h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 26L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$3
politics 21% $0
sports 13% $0
other 11% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 12% -8.3%
≤30d 11 +2.0% -7.7% 55% 9% -8.7%
≤90d 11 +2.0% -7.7% 55% 9% -8.7%
all 35 +0.6% -9.0% 26% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.03 per $1 lost it wins $4.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage262d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $45 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $8 +$1 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $2 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Oct 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $27 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 11 $4 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $23 $0 -1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 09 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $44 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $45 25h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $19 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $49 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $49 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $35 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $34 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $17 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $18 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $20 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $20 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records