Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:11:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
14 0x14c9…7401 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$68 (-8%) realized −$69 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 166d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$16
world 7% −$49
other 3% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -5.1% -14.1% 55% 55% -11.7%
≤30d 20 -5.1% -14.1% 55% 55% -11.7%
≤90d 20 -5.1% -14.1% 55% 55% -11.7%
all 23 -16.6% -24.5% 48% 48% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 48% -19.5%
10% -31.7% 39% -27.2%
15% -38.3% 39% -34.2%
20% -44.4% 39% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$31 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage166d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 55¢ 56¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $76 −$71 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $61 −$59 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $62 +$51 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $61 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$32 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $60 +$77 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$27 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$23 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +79%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jan 30 $9 −$9 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 30 $24 −$23 -98%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $48 −$39 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $33 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $76 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $37 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $61 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $112 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $62 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $61 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $70 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $61 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $68 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $61 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $93 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $61 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $136 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $60 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.72 · official $20.56 · 38 history records