Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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14 0x14cb…3466 crypto 1152 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,804 (-10%) realized −$15,803 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%633W / 518L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,154
7 days−$1,857
14 days−$3,595
30 days−$2,311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16,384
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -4.9% -13.9% 50% 43% -29.0%
≤30d 297 +0.6% -9.0% 52% 47% -16.0%
≤90d 1151 -2.3% -11.6% 55% 48% -18.4%
all 1151 -2.3% -11.6% 55% 48% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 48% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 40% -26.2%
15% -27.8% 36% -33.4%
20% -34.9% 31% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$138 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$15,803
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses633 / 518
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1151 / 1152
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$144
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 86¢ 84¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 200 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $118 +$70 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$50 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$68 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$57 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $76 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $258 +$189 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $199 −$190 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $113 −$15 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $73 +$94 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $413 +$316 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $158 −$15 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$90 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $83 −$74 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$72 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$41 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $81 +$70 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $155 +$146 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$24 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$69 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$69 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $86 +$31 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$78 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$41 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $118 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $166 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $57 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $36 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $35 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $37 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $56 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $258 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $84 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $84 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.13 · official $37.50 · 3500 history records