Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x14cf…9efb
crypto · 27 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 2 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$9 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$8 +81%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$1 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% +$2
other 4% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $5 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.5% -11.8% 68% 44% -8.9%
≤30d 25 -2.5% -11.8% 68% 44% -8.9%
≤90d 25 -2.5% -11.8% 68% 44% -8.9%
all 25 -2.5% -11.8% 68% 44% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 44% -8.9%
10% -20.2% 24% -17.6%
15% -27.9% 16% -25.6%
20% -35.0% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.78 · official $9.78 (match) · 71 history records