Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

14 0x14cf…e3c5 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$7 (+3%) realized +$7 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown66%max

Avg bet$59per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-38.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+2.8%	-7.0%	100%	0%	-6.1%
≤30d	2	+2.8%	-7.0%	100%	0%	-6.1%
≤90d	3	-31.4%	-38.0%	67%	0%	-7.5%
all	3	-31.4%	-38.0%	67%	0%	-7.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-38.0%	0%	-7.5%
10%	-43.9%	0%	-16.4%
15%	-49.3%	0%	-24.4%
20%	-54.3%	0%	-31.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -31% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage

Net worth$108

Realized+$7

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage52d

Avg bet$59

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown66%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$108	$108	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Jun 19	$106	+$4	+4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Jun 17	$19	$0	+2%
Thunder vs. Suns	Apr 27	$2	−$2	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$111	1h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	SELL Yes	89¢	$110	1h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	84¢	$106	39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	BUY No	98¢	$19	52d
Thunder vs. Suns	BUY Suns	19¢	$2	52d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.52 · official $107.52 (match) · 6 history records