Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14d3…e949 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-12%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -17.2% -25.1% 58% 21% -19.1%
≤30d 19 -17.2% -25.1% 58% 21% -19.1%
≤90d 19 -17.2% -25.1% 58% 21% -19.1%
all 19 -17.2% -25.1% 58% 21% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 21% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 11% -26.8%
15% -38.8% 11% -33.9%
20% -44.8% 11% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +236%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $7 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 54m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records