Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14d8…e8f2 crypto 44 markets active 3h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1259 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$7,162 (+13%) realized +$12,405 · open −$5,243
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%11W / 50L
Whale WR19%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,224per market
Trades / day1258.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12,918
politics 0% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1259 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-50.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -45.3% -50.5% 18% 18% -50.2%
≤30d 61 -45.3% -50.5% 18% 18% -50.2%
≤90d 61 -45.3% -50.5% 18% 18% -50.2%
all 61 -45.3% -50.5% 18% 18% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1258.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.5% 18% -50.2%
10% -55.2% 18% -54.9%
15% ← realistic here -59.6% 18% -59.3%
20% -63.5% 18% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 19% (≥$946) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
65.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,485 vs −$764 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$12,405
Unrealized−$5,243
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses11 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)19%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 44
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$1,224
Trades / day1258.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Up 10¢ 0¢ $5,270 $27 −$5,243 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 25 $864 −$864 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 25 $521 −$521 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $531 −$531 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $2,706 −$2,706 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $946 −$946 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $96 −$96 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 25 $3,984 −$3,984 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $493 −$370 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $859 −$859 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $635 −$635 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $454 −$454 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $630 −$335 -53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 25 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $522 −$522 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $918 +$2,533 +276%
Solana Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $500 −$410 -82%
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Jun 24 $237 −$114 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $1,317 +$2,052 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $1,887 −$1,887 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $111 +$146 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $896 −$895 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $474 −$450 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $532 −$500 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $697 −$665 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $491 −$463 -94%
Solana Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $1,132 −$1,131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $7,231 −$607 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $500 +$1,040 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $640 −$607 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $537 −$511 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $1,106 −$1,106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $816 +$1,254 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $1,106 +$2,413 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $713 +$1,706 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $2,383 −$330 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $1,740 +$1,108 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $862 −$400 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $1,110 −$1,104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $1,206 −$1,077 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $523 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $1,001 −$972 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $650 −$647 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 1¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 2¢ $467 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 3¢ $374 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $210 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 10¢ $91 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 20¢ $634 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 30¢ $1,133 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 30¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 30¢ $157 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.12 · official $27.12 (match) · 3500 history records