Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
14 0x14d9…7ebd sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$68 (+4%) realized +$165 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$276
other 22% +$167
politics 2% −$8
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +40.0% +26.6% 67% 67% +23.1%
≤30d 3 +40.0% +26.6% 67% 67% +23.1%
≤90d 3 +40.0% +26.6% 67% 67% +23.1%
all 19 -3.5% -12.7% 53% 42% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 42% -10.7%
10% -21.0% 32% -19.2%
15% -28.7% 32% -27.0%
20% -35.6% 26% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$78 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$165
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage267d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 24¢ $198 $101 −$97 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $101 −$99 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $95 +$163 +172%
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $272 −$272 -100%
Panathinaikós AO vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: Both Teams to Score Feb 19 $50 +$50 +100%
AS Omónoia Leukosías vs. HNK Rijeka: Both Teams to Score Feb 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Noah FA vs. AZ: Both Teams to Score Feb 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 08 $100 +$117 +117%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $51 +$138 +270%
Burnley FC vs. West Ham United FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $202 +$152 +75%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 20 $203 +$29 +14%
SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 07 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $20 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Nov 04 $9 +$1 +10%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $99 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $101 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $74 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $257 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $95 3d
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $70 99d
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 74¢ $202 99d
Panathinaikós AO vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $101 125d
AS Omónoia Leukosías vs. HNK Rijeka: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $50 125d
Noah FA vs. AZ: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $50 125d
Panathinaikós AO vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $50 125d
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $50 125d
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $217 136d
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $100 136d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $189 137d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 137d
Burnley FC vs. West Ham United FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $51 137d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $353 147d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $202 147d
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $232 155d
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 87¢ $203 155d
SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $60 168d
SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 83¢ $50 168d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 176d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? BUY Yes 65¢ $22 231d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 232d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 232d
US government shutdown by October 1? BUY No 4¢ $10 267d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.96 · official $100.96 (match) · 33 history records