Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x14dc…40c5 crypto 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,004 (+17%) realized +$1,032 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%82W / 115L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$366
7 days+$486
14 days+$471
30 days+$779
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$845
other 32% +$288
crypto 3% −$29
politics 0% −$2
world 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +36.0% +23.0% 45% 45% +18.6%
≤30d 180 -1.0% -10.4% 41% 40% +5.1%
≤90d 197 +5.5% -4.6% 42% 41% +9.8%
all 197 +5.5% -4.6% 42% 41% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 41% +9.8%
10% -13.7% 40% -0.7%
15% -22.0% 38% -10.3%
20% -29.7% 37% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$12 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$1,032
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses82 / 115
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)197 / 206
History coverage43d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $109 $93 −$16 (-15%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 32¢ $40 $28 −$12 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $57 +$83 +146%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $21 +$133 +650%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $142 +$35 +24%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $24 +$14 +56%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$142 +139%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$51 +51%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$45 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Wil Jun 16 $5 −$1 -24%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 +$26 +855%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $21 +$22 +101%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $26 +$28 +105%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$9 -84%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $21 +$41 +202%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$61 +60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $19 +$15 +78%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 +$39 +550%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $71 +$81 +114%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$38 -76%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +171%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -79%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $130 +$57 +44%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $203 −$11 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $5 +$37 +712%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $133 +$125 +94%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $41 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 62¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $57 4h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 18¢ $38 6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $41 6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $98 7h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $244 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $102 23h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 23h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $152 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 27h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $4 28h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 32h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Wil SELL 25¢ $4 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Wil BUY 32¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 42¢ $29 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.52 · official $152.52 · 417 history records