Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14dd…c7fc world 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%22W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$2
other 29% −$9
politics 16% −$1
sports 13% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.6% -8.0% 50% 17% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 6% -10.1%
≤90d 63 -4.5% -13.6% 30% 2% -9.6%
all 68 -7.1% -15.9% 32% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 1% -10.0%
10% -24.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -31.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses22 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage529d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $29 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $35 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $37 −$2 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $90 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $77 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $16 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $40 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $36 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $37 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $39 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $3 $0 +8%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $76 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $41 −$1 -3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $79 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $27 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $10 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $38 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $25 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $9 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $14 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $17 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $25 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $20 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $33 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $35 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $35 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $13 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $21 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $3 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $19 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records