Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14df…85cc crypto 528 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%324W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$19
14 days+$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$13
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -10.0% -18.6% 48% 48% -17.1%
≤30d 336 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 50% -11.3%
≤90d 528 -3.6% -12.7% 61% 57% -12.1%
all 528 -3.6% -12.7% 61% 57% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 57% -12.1%
10% -21.1% 34% -20.5%
15% -28.7% 33% -28.2%
20% -35.7% 31% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses324 / 204
Open positions0
Markets (closed)528 / 528
History coverage86d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 528 Trades
no open positions (167 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $3 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 893 history records