Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:29:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
14 0x14e4…eabb sports 1348 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,300 (+4%) realized +$6,304 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%666W / 681L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$2,080est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,244
other 0% −$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 94 -23.9% -31.2% 30% 30% -17.0%
≤90d 1347 +1.1% -8.5% 49% 49% -8.9%
all 1347 +1.1% -8.5% 49% 49% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 49% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 48% -17.6%
15% -25.2% 43% -25.6%
20% -32.6% 39% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$100 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$6,304
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses666 / 681
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$2,080
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1347 / 1348
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$108
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 26¢ $230 $226 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $217 −$216 -100%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Jun 03 $71 +$129 +180%
Birmingham: Mark Lajal vs Leandro Riedi Jun 02 $107 +$193 +180%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $71 −$71 -100%
Heilbronn: Max Houkes vs Emilio Nava Jun 02 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 G Jun 02 $255 −$255 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 02 $705 +$1,864 +264%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $173 +$174 +101%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Vilius Gaubas Jun 01 $46 +$82 +180%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 01 $41 −$41 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 01 $91 −$91 -100%
Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5) Jun 01 $52 −$52 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 01 $142 −$142 -100%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $72 −$72 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $112 −$112 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 01 $112 +$328 +291%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 01 $122 +$178 +146%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $203 +$182 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 01 $183 +$192 +105%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 01 $92 +$268 +291%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 01 $71 +$104 +146%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 01 $183 −$183 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 May 31 $28 −$28 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 May 31 $28 −$28 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 31 $57 −$57 -100%
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano May 31 $97 −$97 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 31 $74 −$74 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) May 31 $174 −$174 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) May 31 $227 −$227 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $305 −$305 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 31 $270 −$270 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi May 31 $166 +$312 +188%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies May 31 $56 +$54 +97%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $367 +$633 +172%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 May 29 $81 −$81 -100%
Cholet vs. ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne May 29 $132 −$132 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 29 $1,446 −$1,446 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 May 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) May 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 May 28 $122 −$122 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 May 28 $181 −$181 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 May 28 $132 +$123 +93%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 27 $122 +$118 +97%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) May 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) May 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5 May 27 $193 −$193 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $172 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $45 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $235 1h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 27¢ $613 16d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 26¢ $92 16d
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Vilius Gaubas BUY Timofey Skatov 35¢ $18 16d
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Vilius Gaubas BUY Timofey Skatov 35¢ $28 16d
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday BUY Blaise Bicknell 35¢ $71 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 49¢ $173 16d
Birmingham: Mark Lajal vs Leandro Riedi BUY Mark Lajal 35¢ $107 16d
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $71 16d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 G BUY ex-Zero Tenacity 33¢ $255 16d
Heilbronn: Max Houkes vs Emilio Nava BUY Max Houkes 23¢ $153 16d
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $72 17d
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $203 17d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants BUY No 44¢ $21 17d
Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5) BUY CR Vasco da Gama 23¢ $52 17d
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $91 17d
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 37¢ $41 17d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 25¢ $92 17d
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 25¢ $112 17d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 23¢ $112 17d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ $51 17d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 40¢ $71 17d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $142 17d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $122 17d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $183 17d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs BUY Yes 48¢ $183 17d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs BUY No 52¢ $22 17d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies BUY No 50¢ $56 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.58 · official $225.58 (match) · 3500 history records