Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
14 0x14e4…3ae9 sports 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,840 (-25%) realized −$2,912 · open +$72
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$4,757now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$756
7 days−$756
14 days−$756
30 days−$2,806
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$559
sports 48% −$2,175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -20.4% -28.0% 42% 38% -24.6%
≤30d 28 -26.1% -33.2% 39% 36% -48.0%
≤90d 28 -26.1% -33.2% 39% 36% -48.0%
all 28 -26.1% -33.2% 39% 36% -48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 36% -48.0%
10% -39.6% 36% -53.0%
15% -45.4% 32% -57.5%
20% -50.7% 25% -61.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$243 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$4,757
Realized−$2,912
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions11
Markets (closed)28 / 39
History coverage26d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $930 $999 +$68 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $850 $987 +$138 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $911 $938 +$26 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $865 $682 −$182 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $535 $505 −$30 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $316 $198 −$118 (-37%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 81¢ $106 $165 +$59 (+56%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 100¢ $50 $106 +$56 (+112%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes 50¢ 100¢ $51 $102 +$51 (+100%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Yes 43¢ 46¢ $51 $55 +$4 (+8%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $257 −$230 -90%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $101 +$87 +86%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 +$82 +81%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $260 +$85 +33%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $71 −$26 -36%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $243 +$145 +60%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 +$98 +97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $256 −$252 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $152 −$150 -99%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $355 +$305 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $345 −$340 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $356 −$21 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$214 +42%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $244 −$240 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $254 −$220 -86%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $257 −$250 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $1,831 −$1,800 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4m
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 43¢ $52 46m
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $52 46m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 47m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $108 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $102 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 14h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $27 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $260 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $101 14h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $45 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $71 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $243 22h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $26 22h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists BUY Yes 24¢ $26 22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $203 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $52 36h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $52 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 36h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 36h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $102 37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $152 37h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $102 37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $203 37h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $345 40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $335 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,757.18 · official $4,711.65 (match) · 100 history records