Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:56:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14e5…4466 other 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,463 (+1%) realized +$1,463 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%27W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$1,261per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$995now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$15
14 days−$34
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$231
politics 33% −$46
sports 9% +$1,722
economics 5% −$10
culture 3% −$6
world 3% −$7
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 30 +11.5% +0.8% 17% 10% -9.2%
≤90d 87 +3.9% -6.0% 8% 5% -8.5%
all 149 +1.2% -8.4% 18% 12% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 12% -8.8%
10% -17.2% 12% -17.6%
15% -25.2% 10% -25.5%
20% -32.5% 9% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,684) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$8 · ×10.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$995
Realized+$1,463
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses27 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)149 / 151
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,261
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $699 $698 −$0 (-0%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $297 $297 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,569 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,361 −$4 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1,356 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,235 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,679 −$5 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4,343 −$5 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $379 +$5 +1%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 10 $1,294 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,953 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,786 −$6 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,282 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $69 +$115 +165%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $75 +$60 +79%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,281 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5,362 −$6 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $4,446 −$6 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $512 $0 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,799 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,992 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $3,255 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,957 −$2 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $71 +$72 +101%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,142 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $608 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,454 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $2,450 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,658 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,551 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 06 $2,413 −$3 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 06 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $297 1m
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $699 2h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $734 3h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $735 5h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $675 45h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $676 46h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $730 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $731 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,116 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,117 5d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,355 5d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,356 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,234 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,235 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,316 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,318 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,225 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,226 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,145 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,146 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,242 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,244 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $379 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $1,292 12d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $1,294 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $950 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $951 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,072 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,073 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,174 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $995.43 · official $995.43 (match) · 487 history records