trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 15 | -62.2% | -65.8% | 33% | 7% | -36.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -65.8% | 7% | -36.5% |
| 10% | -69.1% | 7% | -42.6% |
| 15% | -72.1% | 7% | -48.2% |
| 20% | -74.8% | 0% | -53.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | Yes | 78¢ | 96¢ | $1,100 | $1,346 | +$246 (+22%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? | Yes | 85¢ | 84¢ | $500 | $491 | −$9 (-2%) |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? | Yes | 83¢ | 82¢ | $200 | $199 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | Yes | 59¢ | 57¢ | $100 | $97 | −$3 (-3%) |
| Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? | Oct 18 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? | Oct 18 | $20 | +$9 | +43% |
| Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? | Jul 05 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will TikTok be banned before July? | Jul 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? | Jul 05 | $10 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Jul 05 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? | Jul 05 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July? | Jul 05 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $350b on June 30? | Jul 05 | $20 | +$2 | +9% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Jun 24 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $400b on June 30? | Jun 24 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $380b and $390b on June 30? | Jun 24 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $390b and $400b on June 30? | Jun 24 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? | Jun 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Major cyberattack on Iran in June? | Jun 24 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |