Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:30:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
14 0x14e9…c135 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$634 (+21%) realized +$880 · open −$246
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%17W / 9L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$902now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$504
7 days+$887
14 days+$887
30 days+$887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$68
sports 42% +$760
world 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +25.0% +13.1% 65% 65% +34.4%
≤30d 26 +25.0% +13.1% 65% 65% +34.4%
≤90d 26 +25.0% +13.1% 65% 65% +34.4%
all 26 +25.0% +13.1% 65% 65% +34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 65% +34.4%
10% +2.3% 65% +21.6%
15% -7.6% 62% +9.8%
20% -16.7% 46% -0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$47 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$902
Realized+$880
Unrealized−$246
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses17 / 9
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage7d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1,038 $766 −$271 (-26%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Over 81¢ 100¢ $110 $136 +$26 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots Jun 18 $142 +$108 +76%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $162 +$158 +97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 +$101 +197%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $233 +$218 +93%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $76 +$107 +140%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $60 +$19 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$103 +101%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $132 +$123 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $61 +$48 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$24 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $111 1h
Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $122 22h
Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $20 22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $162 22h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $203 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $76 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $60 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $61 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $90 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $122 4d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $902.04 · official $902.04 (match) · 56 history records