Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14ed…66bd world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$2
politics 16% $0
other 12% $0
finance 5% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -4.4% -13.5% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 16 -4.4% -13.5% 25% 0% -10.0%
all 33 -2.0% -11.4% 33% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage317d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $28 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $22 +$1 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $15 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $27 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $9 $0 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 04 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $29 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $5 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $24 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $29 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $12 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $27 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $21 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $7 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $2 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $23 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $22 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $14 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $15 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $2 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $18 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $8 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $26 18d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $24 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $25 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $13 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $4 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $17 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $4 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records