Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x14ee…04cb other 16 markets active 3d ago coverage 385d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$507 (-27%) realized −$503 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$498
other 24% −$92
sports 13% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -13.7% -21.9% 60% 60% -8.2%
≤30d 5 -13.7% -21.9% 60% 60% -8.2%
≤90d 5 -13.7% -21.9% 60% 60% -8.2%
all 13 -10.7% -19.2% 62% 38% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 38% -36.3%
10% -26.9% 31% -42.4%
15% -34.0% 31% -48.0%
20% -40.5% 8% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$128 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

385d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$503
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage385d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $130 $133 +$3 (+3%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$16 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 01 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%? Jun 01 $100 −$90 -90%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $773 −$509 -66%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $157 +$23 +15%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 31 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $99 +$58 +59%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? May 29 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $82 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 4d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 383d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 95¢ $306 383d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%? SELL Yes $10 383d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 23¢ $264 383d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 15¢ $180 384d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 385d
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect SELL Yes 94¢ $103 385d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $157 386d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $157 386d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 64¢ $273 386d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL Yes 83¢ $21 387d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 70¢ $200 387d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 387d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 387d
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect BUY Yes 91¢ $100 387d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 388d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $99 388d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 388d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 388d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.12 · official $185.12 (match) · 41 history records