Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:50:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14ee…8ab4 world 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 339d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%34W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$37
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$4
politics 17% −$19
other 17% +$2
sports 7% −$5
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 31 -3.8% -13.0% 45% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 80 -2.0% -11.3% 32% 1% -9.6%
all 103 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 1% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

339d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses34 / 69
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage339d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $127 $128 +$1 (+1%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $295 +$2 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $92 −$2 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $257 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $191 −$7 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $161 −$31 -19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $143 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $172 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $172 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $104 +$7 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -46%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $185 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $262 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $208 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $314 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $304 +$12 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $288 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $159 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $306 −$13 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $143 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $261 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $446 +$2 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2 −$1 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $428 +$29 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $128 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $163 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $4 −$1 -38%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $7 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $162 +$2 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $269 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $156 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $260 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $261 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $146 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $253 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $266 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $144 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $126 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $126 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $383 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $126 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $10 $0 +5%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $103 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $126 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $126 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $126 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $127 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $128 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $128 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $90 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $92 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $112 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $18 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $129 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $128 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $129 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $47 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $72 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $128 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $98 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $19 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $118 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $141 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $79 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $49 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $128 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $128 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.24 · official $128.10 (match) · 465 history records