Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14f3…0796 crypto 881 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,008 (-21%) realized −$6,945 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%390W / 639L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day128.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,209
7 days−$5,505
14 days−$5,495
30 days−$7,036
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$827
sports 6% +$308
other 1% +$496
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 -77.7% -79.8% 11% 11% -37.0%
≤30d 1029 -33.0% -39.4% 38% 36% -26.1%
≤90d 1029 -33.0% -39.4% 38% 36% -26.1%
all 1029 -33.0% -39.4% 38% 36% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.4% 36% -26.1%
10% ← realistic here -45.2% 31% -33.2%
15% -50.5% 28% -39.6%
20% -55.3% 22% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$30 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$654
Realized−$6,945
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses390 / 639
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1029 / 881
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day128.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1029 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage InterActive Philippines 48¢ 72¢ $389 $583 +$193 (+50%)
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage D family 43¢ 28¢ $54 $35 −$18 (-34%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Team Refuser 42¢ 100¢ $8 $19 +$11 (+138%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Refuser 83¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+5%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 28¢ 23¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Roar Gaming 37¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Roar Gaming 54¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $75 −$63 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $141 −$141 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$7 -469%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$6 -642%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$9 -184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 83¢ $5 16m
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 83¢ $5 16m
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 37¢ $2 16m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 47¢ $2 22m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 45¢ $6 24m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 67¢ $3 32m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 49¢ $20 49m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 49¢ $19 49m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 49¢ $144 49m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 49¢ $149 49m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 68¢ $7 54m
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 83¢ $4 57m
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 51¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 43¢ $21 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 39¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 39¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 34¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 34¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 28¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 28¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 34¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 32¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 32¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 60¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 60¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 58¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 50¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 50¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 49¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $654.23 · official $529.96 · 3500 history records