Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14f7…232c crypto 469 markets active 9h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$29,481 (+25%) realized +$30,525 · open −$1,044
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%121W / 346L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$759now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,502
7 days+$2,749
14 days−$2,092
30 days−$8,800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$10,354
other 13% +$5,174
sports 9% −$2,184
world 6% +$15,573
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -4.7% -13.8% 27% 20% +47.2%
≤30d 72 -51.8% -56.4% 17% 12% -57.6%
≤90d 256 -68.9% -71.9% 12% 10% -82.0%
all 467 -11.5% -19.9% 26% 24% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 24% +4.8%
10% -27.6% 22% -5.3%
15% -34.6% 20% -14.4%
20% -41.0% 18% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +47% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$947 vs −$245 · ×3.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$759
Realized+$30,525
Unrealized−$1,044
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses121 / 346
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)467 / 469
History coverage122d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $920 $392 −$528 (-57%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $882 $367 −$515 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $105 −$92 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$62 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $63 +$3 +4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $309 +$22 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $158 −$153 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $352 −$340 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $748 −$704 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $146 −$140 -96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $154 +$94 +61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $461 +$3,574 +776%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $213 +$1,707 +802%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$173 +166%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $337 −$316 -94%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 14 $50 −$24 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$23 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $107 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $64 −$60 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $696 −$654 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $138 −$130 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $160 +$136 +85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $314 −$295 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $499 −$469 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $195 −$183 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $747 −$700 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6AM ET Jun 08 $133 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4AM ET Jun 08 $157 −$148 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $178 −$166 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $661 −$630 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2AM ET Jun 05 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $106 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $107 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $107 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $50 −$47 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $544 −$510 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $105 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $38 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $48 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $24 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $23 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $43 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 16¢ $240 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 35h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $158 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $114 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $423 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $758.92 · official $758.92 (match) · 1278 history records