Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x14fb…42b2 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$331 (-8%) realized −$604 · open +$273
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$1,428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$331
sports 34% +$651
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -23.6% -30.9% 50% 38% -8.0%
≤30d 8 -23.6% -30.9% 50% 38% -8.0%
≤90d 8 -23.6% -30.9% 50% 38% -8.0%
all 8 -23.6% -30.9% 50% 38% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 38% -8.0%
10% -37.5% 38% -16.8%
15% -43.5% 25% -24.8%
20% -49.1% 25% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$251 vs −$240 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,428
Realized−$604
Unrealized+$273
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 82¢ 92¢ $500 $564 +$64 (+13%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $500 $493 −$7 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 81¢ $155 $371 +$216 (+140%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $699 +$470 +67%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $376 +$394 +105%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $314 −$310 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $482 −$478 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $370 +$113 +30%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $339 +$28 +8%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $158 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $509 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,169 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $699 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $71 6h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 100¢ $770 6h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 48¢ $376 8h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $314 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 73¢ $482 26h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $483 26h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $370 29h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $367 29h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 30h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $339 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,428.05 · official $1,428.09 (match) · 15 history records