Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:57:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x14fc…0000
weather · 253 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$25 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses211 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)244 / 253
History coverage78d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 9 History 244 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$17
14 days+$6
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 12? No 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 94¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? No 88¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 94¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 6? No 94¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 27? No 78¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23? No 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 2? No 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22? No 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 29? No 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6? No 83¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 31? No 73¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 20? No 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 31? No 88¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 17? No 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? No 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 6? No 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 18? No 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? No 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 96°F or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 07 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 6? Jun 07 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 06 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% −$11
crypto 3% −$8
world 2% +$13
sports 1% −$15
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 82¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $5 41h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $5 44h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY No 84¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 84¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 11? BUY No 91¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June BUY No 85¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 86¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +6.2% -3.9% 98% 23% -4.0%
≤30d 199 -1.2% -10.6% 89% 34% -11.0%
≤90d 244 -3.5% -12.7% 86% 34% -10.8%
all 244 -3.5% -12.7% 86% 34% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 34% -10.8%
10% -21.0% 10% -19.4%
15% -28.7% 4% -27.1%
20% -35.7% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.27 · official $41.33 (match) · 494 history records