Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:48:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
14 0x14fe…38de crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$125 (+19%) realized +$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -7.2% -16.0% 60% 60% +7.5%
≤30d 25 -7.2% -16.0% 60% 60% +7.5%
≤90d 25 -7.2% -16.0% 60% 60% +7.5%
all 25 -7.2% -16.0% 60% 60% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 60% +7.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 52% -2.8%
15% -31.4% 40% -12.2%
20% -38.1% 32% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$8 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$42 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$47 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $70 +$30 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$18 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $43 +$17 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$20 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$11 +134%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $62 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $14 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $17 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $32 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $42 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $7 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $41 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $17 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records